Hey everybody, welcome to another all in
podcast. This is an all besties. No guess T episode of all in the last time you heard from the besties it was election night and it was a shit show a fucking crazy shit show. Let's be honest. I mean, we if we go back and look at that historical document we had moments where we thought Trump was going to absolutely Crush then we had
moments of confusion and now here we are and I think we have to give a couple of bestie kudos to first off shimoff pointing out Pennsylvania was going to be big and then second when we went through the possible scenarios of who what what could possibly happen a big giant Blue Wave Trump winning it all and then maybe something in the middle option three came through
And that was
sexy poo nailed it. I think that we've you're the sort of sumption Sachs the saw that Landing the soft Landing. Yeah, so why don't we just for the people who didn't tune in live? Sorry Jason. Can I ask a question sexy poo sexy, but was that you're like projection or was it from that from that guy who lives in his dad's basement is bad, but that you brought my researcher and you let Newman works for me.
Yeah, Newman, even I worked work together on those takes but yeah, the the take that we thought was was possible but probably unlikely but could represent a really good scenario was the the soft Landing where you get a split decision and I think that's what the American people voted for. You know, you had the Democratic frame on the election was that we needed a return to normalcy and decency the Republican frame was that the radical left cannot be trusted with power and voters.
Basically said there are both right they sort of surgically remove Donald Trump while Thor Ting the radical left dream of Total Control in Washington and what the electorate seems to be saying is they want the parties now to work together instead of voting for extreme ideology. But TBD
sex, I mean Georgia still up for grabs. They're going to go after it hard, right? I mean this is it
they filed in, Pennsylvania.
Yeah, so I think there's a series of Court challenges we can talk about I think that they're unlikely to Prevail very very unlikely. I think Joe Biden will be the next president. We can kind of compare this to you know, Bush V Gore from 2000 and if you want to compare Trump's case to Gore's case it's weaker in every respect. I mean first of all with bush V Gore Gore only had to overturn one state which was Florida where As Trump has
Now contestant overturn three or four states simultaneously second, you know Gore was within a few hundred votes of bush. It was extremely close Trump is no closer than about 12,000 votes in Georgia. That's the closest one third, you know Gore or bush never trailed Gore and and any in any recount and and Trump has that problem that he's never he's very far behind go as well. So you look at those three things and you'd say, you know,
korkin and overcome it and he had a closer situation than this and of course I'd say finally, you know a double you had the velvet hammer James Baker working for him. Whereas Trump frankly has Rudy Giuliani who's throwing press conferences in the
parking lot of forces and Landscaping
between a dildo shop in a crematorium. I mean, you can't make this stuff up. I think somebody somebody was tweeting, you know, it's this is perfect because you know, they were saying they wanted really to fuck off and die.
So this is it was so appropriate that this Press Conference was held between a dildo shop on a crematorium. So, you know, it's not exactly the A-Team that trumps got playing for him here and in the courts, but I mean David bossy by the way, David bought see who is in charge of the whole thing. David bossy is
not even a lawyer and then he gets covid that. So now he's on the
sidelines. I'm that mean just there's so many angles we can take here including the fact that
Am I correct that?
Trump's campaign advisor got covid like the day after or is no
no Mark Meadows fits death even staff got it. But Dave bossy who's in charge of this whole recount process got covid as well.
Okay, so I want to just shift us now to what could have so many things went right for the Democrats, but there was also something very clear here that happened which is the what I call the
HSP the hysterical Socialist Party of America, I think was dealt a death blow if you look this was very close. And so, you know, even if we want to talk about the Electoral College Etc, these are still very low numbers. I believe if the Pfizer news comes out last week Trump wins, or if any combination of AOC bited ioc.
Bernie or Warren were in any way involved in this election process and weren't pushed to the side the squad was squashed because we knew that if they got any kind of play Trump cells into Victory. So when we look at what happens going forward and I'll let any one of the three of you take this. What does this say about the hysterical Socialist Party the HSP the squad
The Bernie Bros. What does it say about them? Well, you have a you have a look you have a you have a loud group of people on both sides. And the reality is that both extremes of both parties. Actually after this election have very little to stand on That's Unique because if you think about what the plurality of Americans want is, actually just a common decent Centrist Do no harm alternative and
They're going to pick that more times than they're not going to pick it. It's only when things get extreme like in 2016 in order to send a message. Will they do it and until it's resolved. They tried to do it again now so we should actually talk about that. I don't think that this was, you know a runaway it was way too close on too many dimensions that actually matter for the future prosperity of America, but that being said, what does it mean for the future? I think the future is like a Pete Buddha judge must be high-fiving, you know the people in his camp.
Now because a common decent thoughtful Centrist platform win, for example, like let's just say you believe in gay rights. Guess what? You don't need to beat the fringes to believe in that. That's Main Street you believe in like a reasonable form of health care. That's mainstream. If you believe in climate change its mainstream you start to go and take off the things that the extremes would want to believe. There's very little room for them to stand on. So one party is going to be basically about like a federalized nanny State and the other
T will be a bunch of conspiracy theories crazies and I think it's going to force more and more people to the middle. I think that's the future to me. That's that's a much safer place to be than I think where we could have been if you know Trump had one or if the extreme left had basically been been validated with a candidate that one right that I would add to that that the proof of that the proof of the lectures desired attack towards the center is you look at the down ballot.
Action, so, you know in the Senate the Republicans are still holding onto majority pending the Florida runoff, but the Democrats failed to take out Susan Collins Thom Tillis Steve daines. These were three incumbent Republicans who are way behind in the polls hang it to election day. They didn't come close to taking out Lindsey Graham are Mitch McConnell despite their name really dollar get out of this one alive explain that Susan Collins. No lady G Lindsey Graham. Oh I see, you know.
Lindsey Graham, they said that it was neck and neck and he actually ended up winning that state by like 14 points. It wasn't close the polls were wildly off and and you saw that across across the board in the house to Democrats expected to gain of 10 to 15 seats instead. They've lost about 10 seats. They fail to defeat a single GOP incumbent the GOP house members ran about two or three points ahead of President Trump and that and the Democrats were completely shut out in Texas, which was so
Going purple there are eight open GOP seats Democrats won none of them. So this you know, so anyway, I'm providing some support to the idea that this was a split decision election the voters voted to remove both of the or to voted against the extremes of both parties. So Friedberg when you look at this you see I think an absolute
Just people don't want to deal with Trump anymore. How much of this do you think is trumped Arrangement system as syndrome and what got Trump into office eventually taking him out, which is the guy just takes up too much oxygen in the room and that's coming from me and the guy is just incredibly annoying to have to deal with day-to-day that's also coming from you and that's also coming. I'm not
prepared. I think we've I think we've been in a row.
Dave for four years and everyone's like coming down from the Molly and you're not gonna go into her Marilyn Manson concert, like right after being an array like you want to go sit in the parking lot. You just want to chill out a little bit and we all just want to like have a beer and relax, you know, like I mean, I think that needs some 5-HTP and a banana you just yeah, you you want to go sit in the 7-Eleven parking lot at 4:00 in the morning and you want to like go get a fucking sweet cappuccino and smoke a cigarette and relax like it's been it's been too much and I think it's like
One just kind of ready to chill out a bit. And so this whole fucking swinging back to the you know to the concert across the road sounds just as bad as what we've just been through. So let's just, you know, let's just live our lives a little bit and you know, we'll come back and four years and figure out how to fuck things up again. I think that's kind of the psyche.
That's where I think I think voters want a presidency they can forget about you know, I think Trump's sort of Achilles heel is he demanded too much of the voters constant time and attention there was like the psychic cost to it and obviously antagonize the other side and
Of turnout for the Democrats but but it seems like voters are saying look just leave us alone. We want to just forget about what's happening in Washington for four years and now they can because you know pending the Georgia runoff, it looks like Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden will have to be in a power-sharing Arrangement and nothing gets done unless the two of them agree. And by the way, just on that there was a great tweet by Paul Graham. He said the day after the election something to the effect of it feels like some background process in my computer had was
just killed that was consuming 5% of my CPU and it's and it's so it really true that Mac operating system Spinning Wheel of death, but it's David is so right. It's like, you know, it's been this omnipresent thing in all of our Lives over the last four years and it's just exhausting and you know, there wasn't that much value that came from paying so much attention and worrying so much and so it's just a great opportunity to come off the sugar high.
And we set ourselves and take a nap. I think that's a very astute Point trim off and that what what was gained from this Trump derangement from this Trump sucking all of the attention and constantly tweeting and you know, I think the big wind here Freiburg is if you look the proof is in the pudding Trump we find out on Saturday morning that Trump is, you know,
Has lost and Biden has 1 and
48 hours later. We find out Pfizer
has 90% efficacy on their vaccine. Obviously these two things are highly correlated Biden has already delivered the vaccine in just 48 hours. And then today we got the rapid testing has been approved by the FDA. I mean, look at this by if at this rate Biden's going to cure global warming by the end of that
look first off.
I think it's a little it is pretty
paradoxical that
the vaccine news came 48 Hours. Yeah, and
it's paradoxical. I mean that was crazy. I mean, you know, they're supposed to be an October surprise. Not of November surprise. I think if Trump has any legitimate argument about being done dirty in this election. It is over this vaccine news because you know that the Chinese announced that three hours after binds to clear president Pfizer announces it a day after binds declared President.
Aunt I mean, you know when Trump went around this the was campaigning saying a vaccine was mere weeks away everyone thought that was bullshit but as it turns out he was telling the truth and if those guys had announced it Jason like you're saying two weeks before the election it might have changed this thing but you got that might have a hundred hundred percent hundred and this is not something he can go to the courts. It's all I can go to the courts and get the election recount were overturned because of this so it's not something that's legally actionable, but I do think that on this news alone.
Trump in four years will be able to claim on some level that this was a stolen
election, but couldn't the same be said about Hillary's email server, right? So like 100, which is that youth came out like Oh, and it was like timed around the election and I do think that there was a concerted effort to not let you know the progress with covid get in the way of the election in any way, you know bias it either way and I think it's like pretty reasonable and fair to say like, let's just not make this part of the new cycle leading into the election and this was expected.
Like if you guys go back a couple of podcasts like you had a prediction on when we would have a vaccine. I think I predicted end of September because of the way that they set up the the production cycle in parallel with the testing cycle. And the way that they were fast-tracking a lot of the testing in a way that wasn't normal for this sort of development and it was it was going to happen this fall if I'm an executive at one of these companies. I don't want my vaccine to become a politicized event. Right? Like I just want to be like, I think it's the reasonable thing to say like
It's just put it on hold. Let's deal with it all after the election. We're still moving forward. We're not holding anything up in terms of production and getting this thing across the Finish Line. It's just the announcement of where we are. So why make that part of the new cycle, you know, and I think like people learnt their lesson with Hillary's server lifetime. It's like this one use, you know, bombshell drops in the new cycle spins up and she loses the election everyone blames her losing the election for that coming out. No one wants to be culpable for that. Right? I'm a fighter exact. I'm just trying to make fucking medicine like I don't want to be on the hook for
Said another way the one winning or losing an election
said another way to move. Nobody wants to go to A Warrior's Finals game versus the Lakers and have the refs called, you know, decide the game in the final couple of minutes. So do you think trim off this is if you were running Pfizer if you were on the board of Pfizer and you have this information and you know, we can come out in this two-week window at any time. What decision would you make trim off?
Well, just imagine that the vaccine was 90% ineffective and it was announced two weeks before the election. You'd have an entire cohort of people saying This was meant to basically sabotage the election in the other direction. So the point is it's a no-win situation. The only answer is to wait until after the election because that's the only way that you can actually say, you know, we were not
We were being impartial. So I'm sympathetic to this idea that all the news had to wait two or three days or maybe it was two or three weeks. Now knowing in advance what the answer was obviously you can read into that. But I think even if it was 90% effective, it should have waited till after the election as well.
Sack, I just think that I don't get the sense that you do agree with that sacks. Well, let's put it this way. I mean we know from our time working in large companies that it takes them weeks to even approve a press release and so Pfizer had this news weeks ago. Now, I understand their reason for not wanting to appear to be influencing the outcome of the election. So I that's why they held onto it. I think everybody saw the way that Facebook was scapegoated four years ago for the
Should have no one wants to know Corporation wants to put themselves in that position of being accused of affecting the election outcome one way or another. I'm sure that's why they did it as opposed to a conspiracy against Trump, but you know, this news was available. I think we will find out weeks ago. And so I guess you'd have to blame or there be some culpability on the part of Trumps election team or you know, his his head of the FDA or what have you they must have known some of this information and you
I'd think they would have done a better job getting it out there. No, he did say it every rally. It's just around the corner. It's China the corner where Randy the question and we all thought it was bullshit. You thought it was bullshit. We thought his bullshit right? And you know why we thought it was bullshit. Well because Trump trump does have a tendency towards hyperbole hyperbola on Trump's most honest a he's hyperbolic on Trump's average day. He is lying incessantly, so if anything if he was right and he was right that we were turning the
Water and the vaccine was coming and it was going to be beautiful beautiful perfect vaccine and everybody was going to get it. He's paying the price for being a liar for four years, right? But it's the kind of thing. Right? No, no boy who cried wolf well and so does the media by the way, but but yeah look I in order for a piece of news this big to be believed before the election. It can't come from a candidate and it's it's pretty amazing that none.
None of this news got out there through some other source, you would think that some of the people on the healthcare task force that Trump appointed might have been, you know, surfacing this or paying attention to it. Maybe Pfizer did a really good job of hiding it. I don't know but it is pretty amazing. That didn't come out sooner. Well, the other crazy thing is like, you know, even the Pfizer team didn't exactly know what was going on the chief the the head of vaccine research. She said we're not part of the federal government's, you know warp speed program.
And then two days later Pfizer was like actually we are part of the warp speed program. It's just that you know, we're A supplier. The whole point is that I'm not sure that Pfizer actually new two weeks in advance David. I think that they were probably trickling stuff together and they probably had a sense of it at the end of the last week. I'm surprised it didn't leak to be quite honest. That's the more shocking thing. Which means that
It was probably something that very very very few people knew about. Well, the CEO the co put out a statement saying that he would be first in line to take the new vaccine, which I thought was, you know, great statement because a lot of people are questioning whether you know, how real it was or how rushed it was. But in order for him to do that and in order just to get like a press release announced. I don't think that's the kind of thing that comes together in the you know one or two day period between
The announcement of Joe Biden winning the election and their and their announcement. So, you know, I just think they had to know weeks ago.
I just want to say to my Greek brother Alberto. Borla's the CEO of Pfizer a great Greek who has led to the saving of the world Hoopa conness saganaki is on me. If you if you if you take 90% of the kassee and you assume that most of
United States 40 percent of people will take the actual vaccination you'll have 36 percent of the population covered which is still not enough to get the are not less than one. Is that correct? Freiburg? What do you
think? I don't know. I'm not an epidemiologist. I'd have to
what I mean. Does it sound directionally correct to you that I don't spread
upon the states are going to take it. I'm a guy veto take it isn't this
like a all the everyone who's high-risk will take
it? Yeah, and as of about two months ago, you know, it was estimated that
that 30% of people on the East Coast had already developed immunity due to the Sero prevalence studies that showed antibodies on the west coast. It was much lower closer to three percent. You could estimate based on the growth in cases since then and assuming we're kind of missing a bunch. We're probably on a national basis. We're a 10% back then on a national basis. You're probably up to 20% right now of Americans have already been effectively immunized by getting the virus. So, you know, if that's true then you're a
55% and you're getting pretty close to a you know, an ability to kind of inhibit this thing from from spreading rapidly again.
So how do we each feel? I'll just go around the horn. How do we each feel about the covid-19 and game? When will we see all schools open all-nba Orion is open with no distancing. Give us a quarter in 2021.
When in America enough vaccines will have been delivered and distributed and Rapid testing that life goes back to let's call it 85 percent of normal.
I don't think you ever get there. I mean it's like we talked about this a couple episodes ago, but it's after 9/11. You know, the key is a emerged and American Travel never went back to the way it was before and I think they'll be a lot about the way we live that's going to be, you know, kind of permanently.
Scarred and permanently changed here for a while whether it is taking people's temperatures at football games wearing masks and you know farmers markets who knows it's going to be all these weird rules are going to pop up. They're going to last for years regardless of how much immunization takes place regardless of how cheap and available. Testing is we're going to have this car for a long time in terms of how we live as a society. I don't think we should kid ourselves that we're going to go back to quote unquote normal.
And I do think kids are going to get tested and schools are going to be like this friggin, you know, almost like TSA is now, you know kids are going to go into school and get tested regularly and they going to do all sorts of stuff that we would have never dreamed imaginable in a free country a year ago. And I think that's permanent. I think, you know, we're going to you're already seeing people going nuts at bars and restaurants and people that have had a door out there partying and living their life again. So the
certainly don't you think if you get the vaccine, you're just going to be like you
Although I've had enough of this.
Yeah, but I don't think that that systems are going to change back to normal. I think systems have changed to the point that we've now got a way of living that we think is safer that we think is we are now kind of inhibited because of the system and Matthew
agree. Yeah, they'll be a lot fewer is what Dave Chappelle said on Saturday. There will be a lot fewer mass shootings depend emic. Is that a great job of keeping the whites at home?
The whites are at home, they're frustrated, but there are so I think they'll be some advantages. Well, I mean, but let's talk about it tomorrow off does 2021 mean kids go back to school. I think they 21 September. No problem. No, I think free burgers, right? I think that the best will get back to is sort of this 80% State and I don't think it happens until probably 20 22 and maybe 2023 probably 2022 because you have to remember like we have to ramp up now billions of vaccine production.
Shouldn't I could say this is a non-trivial path from here to quote-unquote mass market and that takes a long time. I think we have to figure out how we're going to administer it by the way it's and and the way that the Pfizer vaccine works and maybe these other folks is you get the shot and then you know, three months three weeks later. I think you get a booster. So you have to take two cycles of this thing
and it's not going to last forever
and it's not going to last forever. So this is free burgers, right? It's the beginning of a very different way of living.
Saying I think I think that the good part about it is that you know, we've made a lot of changes that makes our lives a lot more efficient the bad part about it is we're even more detached from our neighbors and you know, we're probably even more likely to be a little bit more separated if we don't make an effort to be together.
Sax, do you buy this because I get the sense that you might be more optimistic than Freiburg. Yeah, Chacha my guess I guess I am I think covid is going to be a distant memory by next summer. I think we'll have 1/2 2/4 of transition. But I think that once the vaccines widely available plus the treatment in the testings for the people who slip through the cracks. Yeah. I tend to think things are going to snap back very fast and covid abhi this bad memory a very distant.
Ain't bad memory. And I think in fact I think things may bounce back the other way everyone having been cooped up and afraid of getting some life-threatening illness or going to come out of this really wanting to party. I think the whole world's going to be like Tel Aviv for you know, a few months or something. And yeah, I mean, I really do think it's going to bounce back. I think to the point politically where a few years from now people could ask wait, what why it why was it again that Trump lost, you know,
You know, the this covid thing will be it will be so in the rearview mirror that will wonder why we were so afraid of it.
I think this is I'm going to go with David's Sax's position here because of the simple fact that we had a hundred and thirty thousand confirmed cases, you know up until this election period the last week or so and deaths still not spiking. It's still a little just
to make minor uptick, you know, we had a day with like a
big maybe 1500 but still staying in that, you know thousand range even with cases spiking and I think that we
Were so incompetent with test and Trace in this country that we didn't see exactly what happens in an authoritarian country or a country that is lucky enough to be an island and has easy borders which we almost do. I mean, we basically have two borders. We're like two thirds of to you know, 50% Island, but Hawaii Taiwan, Japan and Australia all quarantine people on the way in they tested them and they had
Extremely extremely low death counts and extremely low case counts with the vaccine being half as effective. As you know, they claim and Rapid testing which some of us have no some of us know people who have experienced rapid testing at homes that combination I believe is going to make this go solo and the people who are high-risk are still going to be scared staying home. I think like
David come the summer of next summer people are going to be at a rave with Freebirds, you know, custom-made Molly or whatever. He's making during this downtime going. Absolutely Bonkers. I think Burning Man next year becomes like the the greatest burning man ever. It'll be it'll be the burn of all Burns. Why was let's shift a bit over 2.
The economy. What a rip did we see when that Pfizer? Well, I mean the election and fives are this week led to a huge rip. Obviously, there's a little bit of cyclical movement. The tech stocks were the big Winners now people are starting to buy Disney back up to a hundred forty. I guess people assume the parks will reopen. What's our outlook for the stock market in David Sachs has you know scenario 3, you know, I don't say gridlock.
Romantic, but forced to compromise government. What do we think the markets look like the next two years. I think you have to go out sex. If you know God's laws gets a gridlock is great for the markets. But both when Bill Clinton was President with a republican house and when Obama was President and there is a republican house and I guess senate for a period of time gridlock is great for the markets, especially given the amount of stimulus has taken place. I mean you had the Trump tax cuts.
Ashley those corporate tax cuts really set the market on fire and then you've got this pumping by the fed and the treasury all the stimulus money for covid. I mean those conditions and then why is gridlock good we didn't explain that here. Well because claims is somebody who doesn't understand why gridlock is good. Why good luck is good. Well because it creates predictability for business and it means that Washington's not going to get in the way and do something to screw up the good times. We have fundamentally, you know, great underlying conditions for economic growth.
Switches we have now pretty low taxes. And we had this For Better or Worse. We have this tremendous amount of stimulus fiscal stimulus. What we know historically is over the past hundred years, right since the 20s independent of Republican administrations or Democratic administrations, you know, more Progressive less Progressive more conservative less conservative during World Wars not during World Wars the markets go up 8% a year. So the Do no harm solution.
Is that things inflate Naturally by a percent be specially if those things are public stocks? So, you know the markets love the fact that there's nothing that could theoretically get in the way of that natural 8% And then when you layer on top of it as David said all this free money, that's just like rocket fuel jet fuel, but you know, but you saw though that there is a rotation right? There is a rotation out of these high-growth software names particularly the work from home bid kind of got
Rushed, you know, I mean, I think Zoom is off 25% over two days or some crazy thing like that. Meanwhile sort of all of these theme park stocks and cruise lines and Airlines all of a sudden ripped. So I mean look the reality is the scary thing about all of this is if any of that stuff actually comes to pass we're going to see inflation and the reason is because if you start going out and spending a bunch of money on tickets and vacations and flights and this and that and pumping money into the economy and taking all that stimulus money and
putting it back to work prices will go up. And by the way, that's not such a bad thing for the economy which needs a little bit of it. So all of this is I think generally very very good news Freiburg. Do you have a position on what you think will happen in the coming? Let's let I would think the midterm is what people care most about so that would be let's call it two to six
quarters so that there's one potential speed bump still which is what I mentioned in the beginning which is, Georgia.
The Democrats could still win both runoffs in Georgia for Senate and they could because Kamala Harris would then have the breaking vote will be a 50 Republican 50 Democrat Senate and and the vice president would would break any
ties. The question is if you have that same turn out where do the Libertarians break because I think the Libertarians were almost two percent of the vote.
Well, I think yeah. Well what's interesting is the I don't know if you guys have but I've gotten emails from
a lot of people asking me to donate money for this runoff campaign and Georgia. I think we're I got so many so many is I think I think we're literally the biggest the biggest funding for a senate runoff race in history by far. Don't you think sex like probably north of a hundred million dollars being spent maybe 100 or 200 million dollars being spent on advertisements in Georgia to try and get people to go vote one way or the other the Democrats think they have a real run at this. They think it's make or break.
Years to kind of get there, you know history changing policies in effect Republicans think it's saved the nation time. So everyone's rushing to Georgia right now. So the markets are going to have a very close eye on what's going on over there. I think you know, I'm very nervous about it. If the Democrats look like they're getting much more money into the state and they're actually going to you know, get people to the polls and to the voting booths and actually get into this runoff on January 5th, and actually
I flip get both of those seats to be a to be blue. It's going to be a very different Market environment and you can see the market dropped by 30 40 percent in the
next six. We have we have a situation where it's 48 48. There are two seats up for grabs. Those two seats are in a runoff these and I want to get into the eggs me correct that Jason. It's 4850. Yes, the Republicans have a 52-48 Advantage with two open seats in the runoff. Actually. Sorry one seat is open the other it has an incumbent Purdue.
Facing awesome Purdue one in the last election. He got like 49.9% 50 if you get 50% you get to this runoff in January Georgia. The only place that has this where you have to get to 50 in order to where it's crazy. It's crazy. So weird idea is this just they want the extra attention or who came up with this idea. This seems just
like every States got its own history. It's crazy.
I'm is one of the unique things about living in the United States of America supposed to America. Let's talk
about exit polls.
Well, this is what's incredible here. Let me tear this up for you. So
in in 2020 Biden got 80 percent of the black vote Trump got six. This is aggregate so we could break this down by men and age grouping you can it looks even even more interesting Latinos Biden got 67 Trump got 22 percent of the Latino vote.
Between the ages of 18 to 34. So boomers are sorry. Pardon me gen Z and Millennials again. I would have thought a hundred percent Biden it was on it was 62% Biden 23% went for Trump won in for amongst women. And again, you know, we thought okay, you know Suburban women are breaking Biden 80/20. It turned out Biden got 58 percent of
Trump got 35% of all the female vote and the coup de gras whites with the degree again. You would have thought this would have been a T20 90/10 and said it was 53% Biden 38% Trump.
So this really was something that if we look at this, we look back on this the pollsters were completely wrong in thinking that once again that these groups of people are monolithic the and then I think the most the most mind-boggling to me and I had a candid discussion about this was the term Latin X is a
A catch-all term for people who are of Latino Spanish-speaking descent and what somebody told me who is in this Latin X group is that it's the most insulting thing. They've ever been told it's almost as a term like the term saying Oriental to describe people from Asia. You're just grouping us all into one thing people from Cuba Venezuela and Mexico all think the same. This is the
Absolute, you know endgame of identity politics, which is we have to put you in a corner. We own you. We own your opinion and you belong to our party whichever party it is. Oh, you don't have a degree. You're a GOP hillbilly OU your Latin X. Okay. Well then we all knew you're a Democrat David what and I know that this is an area where you know, you have a lot of expertise.
What are your thoughts? Well as it turns out promoting socialism to people who fled Cuba Nicaragua and Venezuela to escape it turns out not to be a great election strategy. And and so yeah, it's this idea that Latin X is 1 Block. It's not it consists of a bunch of different of immigrants from a bunch of different nations. And the ones who fled socialism are not eager to re-enact it in the United States. There are
Can flipped to House Seats in South Florida where there's a lot of cuban-americans and even in the the heavily Mexican-American counties in the along the Rio Grande in Texas Trump improved. Let's see. He looks like he improved fifty nine and thirty percent thirty nine percent respectively over his 2016 showing. So this is not just some fluke of the exit polls it
it seems like Trump really made progress in a lot of these groups that seem to defy their you know, what the promoters of identity Politics the way that they want them to vote gay Americans were another one. I think Trump improved his share of the gay vote from 14 percent in 2016 to 28 percent this year. So, I mean really it's pretty amazing people are not voting the way that they're supposed to vote Trump also improved from twelve to eighteen percent.
Black men and four to eight percent of black women. I mean those are still pretty low numbers, but there was Improvement there and I think part of the reason is that not all of the African-American Community is on board with defunding the police. Well, I also think what it means is identity politics is a stupid strategy forget whether you're offended by it or not at this point what's clear is it's a stupid fucking strategy. It doesn't work. It's a path to losing because the more and more you do it the more and more you're going to disinfect.
Franchise individuals who want to be judged sort of of sound mind and body right? I mean if we took a thousand Sri Lankans and put them in a room and said your mouth I'm going to judge you as a Sri Lankan vote. I would tell you to go fuck yourself and I would be deeply offended by that and this is where I think the radical left is going to have to retool because their theory of how they take power in America was always that demographics is destiny that you know as the country simply becomes more diverse we're going to they're automatically going to vote for us and
There's a lot of data in this election to show that that's not what's going to happen. You actually have to run on issues that people care about
let's think about this in the context of Internet advertising right the the world prior to Internet advertising you had, you know channels and you would have an audience that was estimated to be made up of some demographic set on that channel and you would buy an ad spot on that channel and that's who you would reach and see what create a message for that now today we can create
Eli's dads and personalized messages and internet advertisers are much more thoughtful about targeting targeting based on psychographic profiling behavioral targeting and I think that's where politics has to head in the United States. Its kind of keeping up with this personalization of both products, but also of media and ads and and I think that's what we're going to see if you listen to James Carville who's like, you know, a classic kind of democratic campaign advisor, and he did a podcast just leading up to the election and if
Listen to this podcast. These guides are very old school. It's like the whites are going to do this and the blacks are going to do that and the that college-educated are going to do this and the others are going to do that and they don't realize that the segmentation that's possible today. I think reveals a lot more about the character of the the population. They're
basically I think it's such an astute Point Freiburg. They're basically living in the level of granularity of network cable.
It's like a TV, but
I got to cable TV and they're like, okay Bet
ESPN
Scar and guess what? Like we're the world is much more complex individuals have found their own personal voice and they found their own personal Voice through social media through Instagram through this ability to kind of Define themselves not fit within a cohort and I think
that's what maybe they always did feel that way and we just had never had the technology to get there.
Yeah, but I think it's I think it's also that people like people have complex points of view, you know, the four of us sit here and none of neither of us. None of us identify as a party anymore. We all identify with with certain point.
We think are important to us individually and then we have a point of view on those points. And I think that's the case for the majority of the population in the United States. I don't think people are like, I'm just a fucking Democrat no matter what number Republican a matter what people care more deeply in a more complex way and I think politics needs to resolve to that and that's going to require a shift in how you communicate how you message how you get feedback how you drive blocks for voting and it's going to it's going to you know be a really interesting change over the next 15 to 20 years and it may be
what Saves The Republic
I think this is an incredible observation that you might be the observation of the episode and I just want to point to a tweet I did because this is this election has really led to me doing two things one. I've been just thinking deeply about what do I actually understand about Americans in America? And then I also you know, there's all these red pills around so I decided I would crush up or red pill and I would just, you know, put a
little on my finger and I try a little red pill
for a
And everybody told me have been red belt now on Twitter and that I'm a trump fan. I'm not I hate the guy. I think it's horrible. But I did this quick survey here. I said if you voted for Trump, I want to understand what percentage of your vote was based on the combination of a canceled culture be identity politics see socialism D Coastal leads telling you how to live explain other issues that contributed in a reply IE spending immigration SC the Supreme Court Etc, and I just said,
Sent one to 25 26 to 50 at over 50 and and I got 12,000 votes. Go ahead and look at the results not the replies but go ahead and vote. It doesn't matter which one you pick over 50% of people who voted for Trump. And I know this is unscientific. It's my followers, but it's definitely feels directionally, correct the people who felt 26 to over 50%
Was part of the cancel culture identity culture was what they were trying to communicate with their vote. Well, this is this is such an important thing because I think this is what we're fighting over the every single pilot percent of them every single election going forward. Like if you if you put this on top of the 70-odd million people that voted this kind of roughly makes sense, which is that, you know, there's probably about 20 million people who will completely vote Democrat no matter
And 20 million people who will completely vote Republican no matter what their they're just eyes are closed their ears are closed. They don't care. But when you take those people out, there's this enormous amount of people in the middle who have the ability to vote a split ticket, you know, and as a taxi Pooh said like they'll vote Democrat into the White House, but then down-ballot. They'll vote a bunch of Republicans and they'll just make sure there is a balance of power so they've been telling us
Us about this kind of centricity for years. And so if you want to win an election, you do two things part one is you understand this Dynamic that centrism wins and part two is what free Brooke says, which is you understand that we need to enter sort of the Google CPC world of political advertising and really cater not just the ads but also the message to individual people and stop the, you know the cat and the gross high level categorization, which isn't working anymore.
yeah, and and Jason limit can I can I add the connection between cancel culture and the selection so, you know, obviously the pollsters got everything completely wrong and again again and but the reason is because of cancel culture, so in exit polling 45% of Republicans with college degrees Express fear that their careers could be at risk if their views became known compared to only 23 percent Democrats saying that and so there
R were these you know quote-unquote shy Trump voters who are afraid to tell pollsters what they really think now it wasn't the Trump voters that you think of when you see the pickup trucks in the convoys go by or the rallies sort of those. Those are the voters from 2016 who weren't counted. It was sort of the non-college blue-collar voters the Michael Moore, you know people who turned out for Trump and big numbers and work properly counted four years ago. The pollsters actually counted those people correctly this time the people they completely
Your estimated was actually the white college vote who swung for a lot of swelling from Democrat to Republican. They voted for Trump because of this issue and they were afraid to say anything about it because they're afraid of getting cancelled. And by the way, they they are every other person everybody listening to this podcast works with and so deal with that one. Right? Exactly. Anybody who's not actively virtue signaling on Twitter for Biden is a trump voter.
Not sure that's exactly correct. But roughly think it's wrong roughly, you know, if people aren't expensive people in Tech aren't explicitly endorsing Biden on Twitter. They're probably closet Trump voters.
It is going to be very interesting for people to go back to offices because now we have had a resolution and identity politics cancel culture and extreme is am on both sides hysterical and trolling trolling Republicans historical Libs. This has been a loss for both of those parties. And now the pandemic is ending we're going to be back in offices at some point. I mean what is office culture going to be like our
We're going to go with the Brian Armstrong. Let's just get worked on here. Let's not talk about politics. It's just two charged or not. It's going to be a very interesting. It's every it's every come. It's every company's right, you know, it's every company's right to care about what they want to care about every board every CEO every controlling shareholder and then it's every employees right to vote with their feet about whether that's okay or not. And I think that look I mean the whole Brian Armstrong thing again just
To say one of the most pathetic Lee poorly written, you know pieces of English prose I've ever fucking seen, you know, anything crypto In fairness my God. Oh my God. Yes. He's my dog. He's not a coder. He's a sees a CEO my dog slamming his purple on the keyboard would have created a better Pros in that but he was coming from a reasonable place. He had the right to say what he said. The problem is that it's so antithetical to what you're allowed to believe for example living in San
But I think that that's going to change because you can't ignore every other person telling you that there are meaningful economic issues that matter and that the prioritization and the policing of these, you know, sort of high value social signaling issues are no longer a priority and I think that what's going to happen is there will be room for a party that focuses on that and a group of people but they will be relegated just like on the other side.
Side that will happen to the Republican version of that as well. I just think this whole thing to this honestly for me it was it seems like such a tight election it is but I really think the huge winner here is centrism Balan hundreds II agree with that and I would say that this election proves that Brian Armstrong was right because the average American is tired of these highly charged political situations. And the last thing they want to do is have these conversations.
At work where they can get reported to where they can offend their co-workers and get reported to a charm. Thank you to make them feel unsafe - they don't want to have these conversations at work. Certainly by the way. Only 5% of coinbase is employees took Armstrong up on that offer to leave. So the number of people who actually want to have a politically charged workplace is very very small. They're just the noisiest that are the squeakiest wheel, I mean and that was a ridiculous deal. I mean, what did he say six months and we've
sniffs, ah be made it really attractive to leave if you didn't agree with his policies. That was that written because I couldn't figure that out. It was it wasn't it was an attractive deal to leave if you wanted to leave and 95% chose to sit. Yeah, and I did I say was poorly written. I didn't understand it because it was so poorly would so anyway, so 90 95 % stayed. So my point is just the number of people who actually like this highly polarized politically charged situation, which were all arguing with our friends over politics and children are divorcing their parents because they're not whoa
Enough. I mean people don't want to live in that kind of country anymore. And I think this is the thing that Joe Biden really got right in his campaign. I mean, this is why I mean this is the only way that his basement strategy could actually work and result in him getting elect elected is people actually do want this return to normalcy. You know, who the biggest losers going to be coming out of the side Bank not when you think holistically about the ecosystem it's going to be the media because they have made an
loot Fortune over the last four or five years picking aside. What is the point of watching Rachel Maddow January 20th. What is the point of tuning in to Fox News or reading the historical opinion page of the New York Times all of these places that were being propped up by either trumpism or anti Trump is are now going to find themselves where they started which is a job without a job and we
I wanted you to tell us the news there was a string there was a great article in New York Times have an opinion page ripped the opinion page out of the wit New York Times rip it out of the Wall Street. No, no, no. No, I no I disagree. I think the opposite happens, which is that opinion page was meant to be where people could have an opinion so that everything else was fact and the problem is that all the other Pages became opinion as well and nobody told anybody. Yes. Nobody can tell the difference.
That's the difference. That's right. They can't tell the difference and look at that expose about how Barry or Barry Weiss was run out of the New York Times it basically the activists ran her out. And the reality is activists is completely captured the New York Times and CNN and MSNBC. And there is no they always had Fox and the New York, but I always had Fox but but now we have no objective neutral media. And so who's going to call the election. I mean you complain about the fact that
Trump is showing descent. But who is the universally trusted spokesperson for neutrality. The way that Walter Cronkite was when he could just declare and that's the way it is and people believe that's the way it is. Who did the best job Friedberg that night when we were doing that. Let's reflect on the livestream. I have two questions for the live stream number one, who was your best est? Who did who did you think added the most as a guess T and Y and then number two or do we're doing what?
We're gonna do it. We're going to do a poll a human valuable. Maybe first time I got a
lot of feedback on the guest. He's the world girly Peter. Can I say one more thing on this top Brad
before before we go there there was a there was a really good article in the New York Times about Maggie Haberman, right and Maggie who's a fantastic journalist, but built an entire career really Amplified came to a head in 2016, and she just scoop after scoop.
Um about Trump, but the most impelling thing about that whole article was somewhere near the you know, third of the way from the bottom. She's like look at the end of the day. She said something like I'm dispensable and I know it and it was the most honest thing because it's like despite her popularity and despite sort of you know, how big of a stick she carries the reality is sods Trump. There's just nothing to do. There's nothing to leak. There's
there just is not nearly as much
to do. I did just put in the chat hair The Washington Post Fox News the hill basically like the full gamut of of media opinion have highlighted that the media generally is The Biggest Loser of the of the 2020 election and I think I think they've just lost the Faith Of Their audience and you know it
It's I mean, it's two sacks this point. I don't know how many people were you're either looking for objective and you've lost it or you're looking for opinionated and you feel like you're you know, you're aligned opinion setting media partner has betrayed you, you know, the fact that fox called it for for Trump and Trump's now saying foxes is a liar the fact that the New York Times doesn't feel like they're being objective anymore. And they're you know, they're running people out of the out of The Newsroom in general. I just feel like we've been
sized and I think that's that's something that's going to be really hard to kind of recover from and resolve
and you know, the love of God can somebody please get I don't want you to break any laws, but however, if we could read the slack channel of the New York Times reporters leading up to the hundred days of this election, that would become the greatest best-selling book of all time, too.
Watch The New York Times writers bicker with each other sacks. I mean we could do 10 hours on that. No problem. Let's talk about okay, bestie guesting who guessed these what you think of our guests? I thought they were all great. I think they're all great or we now becoming a media critics. We're gonna now yeah, we
like it was our own our own podcast. What are you going
Jason wants?
Jason wants to throw em youth under the bus. Go ahead Jason.
No, no. No, I'm okay contraire. Does anyone have a video? They want a chair sit on the potty
youth in his place that it was not the it was not the point guard in this case somebody.
Pull the Draymond and pulled me aside and said stop you gotta pass the ball. I didn't brag did a great job. He had some great insights. I think Bill girly had some great insights. We Denny was just a great really good job of getting some people to rotate and I enjoyed it. Yeah. I thought it was really whatever was great. I'll give a shout-out to my best in human. It was better. Here's better as a political analyst and all those Jokers on CNN and fox and MSNBC
if you with the with the map and
He kept touching the mat. But yeah, it's like I gets paid to do that. I can't believe he gets paid to do that. I'm sitting at my daughter on see if she can do that.
When I on CNN, who does that John King John King John King. God bless this guy because I don't know how much Adderall he's on but
I turned it on at 8
a.m. And he was zooming into Pennsylvania and he's like, oh well, of course in 2018 this AB 2066 like let's
zoom out and let's go back to Arizona. Of course in Arizona this place. I was like had
Is this guy a geography teacher? I mean he was amazing and just the dexterity at he looked like he was Tom Cruise in Minority Report with the
finger. I don't know if I'd call him Tom Cruise when I look like Tom Cruise, but the Minority Report
pinch and zoom in and out it was incredible and when does Trump called the sing? That's a great question. Well, I think he has to run out these core challenges which will take a few weeks, but I predict by Thanksgiving but it may have to go up to the Supreme Court.
But he's gonna he's gonna dot the I dot every i and cross every T that he's got legally but he's got like we talked about the very beginning. He's got a huge uphill challenge. I see the court ultimately ruling against them or throwing it out. I didn't see the point David. What is well because why shouldn't he exhausted every he's not going to win? Well, I don't I don't know that he knows that he I think it's his right to exhaust every legal possibility and let's remember Al Gore didn't concede for 37 days after the election.
So I certainly think Trump is within his rights over the next few weeks to run this out in terms of what the point is. I mean other than the obvious attempt to challenge it legally. I do think this is partly a branding exercise by Trump. It's a marketing exercise. I don't think he's going to come up with enough malfeasance to overturn an election. But I do think you'll probably produce a lot of smoke and this is about protecting his brand as a winner and you know if he kicks up enough
You know examples of voter fraud or what have you he will always be able to say, you know years from now that this was a it was a stolen election. And when you combine the fact that covid really did drive this this election you could call that Chinese election interference. If you want the fact that the vaccine is now here already you could call that, you know, some sort of election interference. He's going to have enough arguments where if he wants to run for years from now, I think
He probably gets the Republican nomination again, what's the percentage chance chamath that he runs again in four years zero Freiburg
from
yeah,
he's gonna be making so much money is not going to know what to do with himself. He's not going back to that fucking tortures or carry out. If anything about the White House like some terrible Blum House production movie Set. He's like fuck that. I'm not going back there. It was awful. Where is he going? Where is she going to begin to go to China? He's going to
Shanghai. Is he going to
To what's gonna launch it you gonna be
in New York. He's gonna buy a law firm because you're going to need a law firm to keep everyone at Bay and he's gonna be probably printing a hundred million bucks a month, you know, put it at Dubai Saudi Arabia. I think I
think I think he's definitely going to launch a media business and he'll he'll try to become king maker. I think he will become a king maker Republican politics. He will launch a competitor to Fox News, but it will also be Fox News hybridized with a Grassroots movement like the tea party and every Republican
And we'll need to go get his endorsement or they will be primaried by the Trump party and I would not put it on ice cream more.
Could not disagree more. I think he's a disgrace. I think he will be I think what does not what David said, he's gonna come. Not you David. I'm talking about Trump. I think David's incredible. No, I think the stuff that comes out after this the day luge the number of sdn. Why suits all the grift and the graph it's all coming out. Not only is he not going to be
A kingmaker, he will not be able to get the backing for this network. It will be Breitbart light and will be shut down within 24 months. He'll fail so miserably that when he walks into a restaurant. It'll be like Game of Thrones Shame Shame. Well, I
don't I don't I don't think so. I think that it's very likely that the Donald Trump
that runs for president 2024 is Donald Trump jr.
Oh God. No, he's horrible. The whole Republican party has to start over. Let's end on this pompeya home.
Did a press conference is the state department currently preparing
to engage with the Biden transition
team? And if not at what point does a delay hamper a smooth
transition or pose a risk to National
Security. There will be a smooth transition to a second Trump
Administration.
All right, we're ready.
The world is watching what's taking place at we're going to count all the votes when the process is complete. They'll be elector selected. There's a process the Constitution lays it out pretty clearly the world should have every confidence that the transition necessary to make sure that the state department is functional today successful today and successful with a president who's in office on January 20th emitted afternoon will also be
successful. Can I can I just say I don't disagree with the position they're taking it's not immoral.
It customary and traditional to concede your election. But you know December 15th is the date that Congress ratifies the electoral votes to determine who the next president is going to be and these guys are just taking a very kind of pragmatic legal line that is not immoral in a way that they believe that they have some case on what the vote should be. The votes are all very close yada yada. I'm not saying that he's going to win by any chance.
But I don't think that folks saying like let the votes be counted and let Congress do their job of having the state's tell them who their electoral votes are going to is is an inappropriate position to take I sound like I might sound like some conservative, you know Trump head, but I'm not I think that these guys I'm what I'm just saying is that these guys aren't that immoral in kind of asking for that for that, you know,
so I also think at the fringes of the Republican party. This is what you keep all these militia folks and all these other folks.
at Bay is just you show a really methodical, you know stepping away from the spotlight and I think that this is honestly it's this is a very deliberate safe calming thing to do
as I think it's there's been nothing about the Trump Administration from 2016 through to this very moment that has been customary or traditional and so I don't know why we all expected him to step in and say like I could see like the way that we've been doing a deal on
it would be worse if we worse if he had conceded and all of a sudden
It was holding a bunch of protests and rallies all over the country that but
he's not doing anything illegal. No one has any legal requirement to concede and you know, and I think as long as these guys on December 15th, which is the date that we should all be watching and waiting for as long as these guys do the appropriate thing at that point. Then you know that that's the only point at which I would have any sort of concern or worry about what's going on with the transition and the government, but
sorry, I think this is about saving face and saving Brandis at Cebu said you'll be out by December 15.
Meaning right? It'll this will all be done. Yeah, I agree and look. Let's remember that Al Gore was able to challenge the election result for 37 days without being hysterically accused of undermining democracy. So let Trump have his day in court. It'll play out over the next few weeks. I expect that the obstacles he has to overcome are too large and he will lose these lawsuits. It might go to the Supreme Court. It would not be a bad thing. If the Supreme Court were the ones to make this decision. They're one of the last
Is that still trusted clearly the media are not and I think that you know Trump will accept the result. He may not concede but he will accept the result when it comes from the Supreme Court. Is there a nonzero chance that he could win on a recount? He would have to prove systemic fraud because it's not like Florida where there's just one state and a few hundred votes. He's got to overcome over 12,000 votes in at least three states. So
The issue is is percent on its facts if you had to lay money on it. Oh, I mean, it's like sub 10 percent chance. I think sep 10 percent chance one in ten. You'd give ten-to-one odds. No I'm saying it's under 10% I'm saying it's a very small tree. Well, here's the thing. So Bush V Gore the Supreme Court ruled 722
I mean you would have thought it was 920. So clearly there was some sympathizers in Bush V Gore. So hopefully, you know, it's something like 722 and you know, we move on I believe if it gets the Supreme Court it will be at least 7 to 2, if not a water 9-0 just because I think Trump has a much harder case to prove and Florida the issue was simply whether the recount should be allowed to continue James Baker went through Supreme Court to stop the recount that was in process.
Because of the fear that the local corrupt election officials basically steal the election for Gore that you know, but Bush was always ahead in that election. There was never a time when Bush was behind by it in is now ahead in every swing state that matters Trump has to now overturn that result in at least three of those States. I don't know. How does that out by tens of thousands, but I just don't know how he does that he has to prove some sort of systemic.
That took place across the nation that and look I think from a like a marketing or branding standpoint. He'll be able to create a lot of smoke. I think they will actually find quite a bit of misconduct because I don't think our elections are perfect. But will it rise to the standard that the Supreme Court's going to set for overturning and election? I don't think so. I don't think so. I mean, they'll probably find it on both sides. There's got to be some crazy. Well the other trumpet supporter who has 10 ballots they signed and they'll be some crazy.
Be liberal who did the sale the Nuance that out the nuanced issue is whether they can do a constitutionally valid recount by you know, the time necessary as well. So the longer that this delays on then they'll be forced to basically say no to that also because otherwise it will be effectively throwing out an election and so as we wrap here San Francisco's continuous to devolve Revenue down 40% in terms of taxes budget is double what it's been just a few years ago.
Is going crazy Walmart is closing their stores and leaving what because of Walgreens. I'm sorry Walgreens don't have a Walmart here and there's 20. There's more homes on the market now than there have been too much of anything is a bad thing. If you eat too much broccoli, it's about thing. You know what I mean? So too much of a single party monoculture is bad. Whether it's Republican or Democrat. You need a diverse Centrist position.
Morality and in the absence of that many cities that Veer in One Direction or the other will Decay and die and San Francisco is going to be the tip of the spear for the left's version and there's a been a bunch of cities that have already been the examples of the rights version. So, you know what? Apparently the water is warm and they want to join.
Anybody else fredbear? I can't I can't find a lot to disagree with their I think San Francisco. We're basically an Atlas Shrugged. I mean the half the store fronts are closed there boarded up. The city is completely surrendered to the criminal element. You can't park your car anywhere in the City without having it getting broken into they won't prosecute people for crimes including increasingly violent crimes the you know, the the the the
The city is about to go bankrupt and the entrepreneurs are all disappearing. They're all leaving. I mean, it's right out of the Shrugged.
Yeah. I mean it's it's the the action is the wrong action, right? So San Francisco, the biggest disappointment of election night for me was the new business taxes that were passed for San Francisco businesses. And and there was also this like four ninety-nine point nine nine.
Nine nine nine nine nine percent of people they're going to shrug and say I don't give a shit but there was this new tax of 6% for homes that get sold over 10 million dollars. Now if you're a successful entrepreneur and investor or a CEO of a company in San Francisco, and you know, it's like a slap in the face you add the business tax with that kind of high-end property tax and it's almost like an invitation to lead the city and some people are nodding their heads. This 6%
is on leaving or buying
And when you sell so you literally six percent off the top when you sell a home the city
basically just took six percent of
myself. Yeah,
the city took six percent of my house. It's an Alex there now a part owner of my house.
Yeah. It's an estate tax. And so there are people there are people in San Francisco who we all know.
How much warning did you have before? They took your none that room?
Yeah. I mean, there's a London breed put some people in saxes their 13th bedroom on the third floor.
They're all living there right now. But as I said, okay, I got like wings. I don't even know about it's like totally like Richie Rich's house or something. So like no Nobody
Cries Nobody Cries for super rich people and you know,
but it was a short-sighted is the point. Right? Right exactly. I'm not complaining
about the taxes on me, but it's gonna do tremendous damage to the city. People are not going to want to
move here and we yeah, I look I've built businesses in San Francisco since 2006 and I will not build another business in San
Cisco and I hear the same from other entrepreneurs if you're going to build a business do it in the South Bay do it in the East Bay doing the North Bay or doing an Austin or LA or somewhere else, but this is just not a place to build businesses. The city is basically saying we don't want you here. Now that would be fine and dandy if the city was being conservative in the way that they spend and if they were actually reducing their budget and you know kind of reducing the the city's activities the problem is these these taxes diverge with the budget because the
Says are now going to go down because businesses are leaving people are selling their homes. They're not going to buy expensive homes anymore. And we are seeing a budget crisis and Francisco. I think it's looking at a one point seven to two billion dollar budget shortfall this year. I mean like, where is that money going to come from? This is really what 800,000 so we have and there was an
expose on the stairs to a Chronicle talking about how there's over 20,000 city workers making over $150,000 a year 30,000. Yeah. Yeah. What are we getting for? All of that? The evidence is not apparent.
Aunt and this is where okay. Look, I'd be happy to give the city six percent of my house and pay all these high taxes if we actually got something for it, but the city just keeps getting less and less livable
City budget in 2013 with sweet little pricey
fiscal crisis and we have a livability crisis that I think is even worse and that that's a huge problem and let's be frank. San Francisco is always The Accidental beneficiary of Silicon Valley if you Wilson
Go was The Accidental billionaire? It was Silicon Valley that created this enormous wealth and all the jobs and the companies. It wasn't serious Co policies or politics that created any of that. It just so happens that Silicon Valley got big enough. It started around Stanford. I got big enough that San Francisco as the nearest metropolitan area really was the beneficiary of that and and you know, because they never really did anything to create the conditions for that Prosperity frankly. They took it for granted and now that the rug
has been pulled out from under them. I don't think they're really going to know what to do
local local San Francisco politicians treated Silicon Valley success as a grab bag and Uber set up here and Twitter and square and Salesforce and San Francisco politicians put their hand in the Honey Jar and took as much as they could and it's now backfiring because new businesses don't want to set up here entrepreneurs don't want to operate here and Ice axes pointing out but you know the rapid kind of inflation has
Was this tremendous decline in the quality of service? There is zero accountability zero checks and balances. So San Francisco is in for a really Frank scary Reckoning and a lot of people are really worried about it. And it's like a very real problem. It's not like, oh the city's fucked. Haha like a two billion dollar budget shortfall. You're either going to have to cut a lot of jobs of public employees or you're gonna have a city that's going to go bankrupt and you know bonds are going to get defaulted on and at the same time you're going to have this Mass Exodus of people and businesses.
It is a it is a very kind of unwinding not right now. So it's a scary moment. I don't think it's a real great answer for way to you. It's more nuanced but I think
it I think it will happen mark my words. San Francisco will file for bankruptcy in the next 10 years. Wow. Let me
pull up these to look even beautiful Okie held out a
major city filing for maybe 15, maybe 15 years. But yeah,
ten fingers remember a big part of what Pelosi held out on the big thing. She held out on in the stimulus negotiations last month was
For local and state governments to get bail at support in this stimulus package and she's acutely aware. She lives one block away from me down the road here. She's acutely aware of what's going on in San Francisco and the solution may not be to bail out these cities and the states if they're going to continue to operate the way they are because it's
so State needs to break in order to rebuild.
Well, you need to cut budget. I mean any of us running a business no, like, you know, if you have little Revenue coming in and you're spending too much.
Where the fuck's the money coming from? You can't just keep going a big papa in DC and ask him for more money. Well masayoshi
son, maybe hello. He consider coming to an end.
Maybe it's back. Maybe some we do this time. I really
fine. I'm going to SPAC San Francisco fight back. Listen, I think is right about San Francisco being the proof of what happens when you have a one party system, and I really hope
That the Tech Community the tech liberals who are listening to this podcast, they're not gonna listen to me because they probably you know think I'm too conservative but you know, your mouth is pretty liberal and you know, he makes the right point and you know, we cannot have a one-party system that remains healthy for very long. We need the pendulum to swing back towards the center and you know, I really hope that yeah power corrupts absolute power corrupts. Absolutely as you've as you've said many times
It's true. That's Lord. Acton said that.
This is literally what the Dark Knight Batman series is about. It's literally about not having a basic standard of policing and allowing criminals to run a city. We've turned into a goddamn comic book like you have to arrest people who commit crimes and and what if that hurts my feelings when one of the things that such beautiful up, yeah, you're right and one of the things that's like the comic book is this
Sense of fatalism, you know, it's like everybody knows him Francisco's broken, but nobody thinks they can do anything about it. That's really the tragedy of it. That is the tragedy and you know, what if any of us
I've said it before I'm like I know exactly how you can stop all these car
break-ins you there's a thing called the bait car. You put 10 Bay cars out you put cameras in them. And now that Einstein is spoken boys. I love you. I love you all.
Love you all wait to
see you again. And for those of you who would like to advertise.
On we go
podcast. The advertising rate
has been set at ten million dollars a year for however many episodes we do. I will read the ad at the end of the show. If you give 10 million dollars to the charity of tremont's picking which apparently is going to be San Francisco. I think that'll valid point seven percent of the budget follow Friedberg on the Twitter. Follow David Sachs follow tamale Hoppity. If you like the show tell your friends and write a review or don't we
don't care we just do this because we like hanging out with each other. We'll see you all. Oh and if you want to be a guest on the show, we don't accept any guest recommendations for the love of God. I don't know how many people are begging to be on the show. It's there's room
enough for four people maybe on a live show
best. He has these you're not getting your CEO of your whatever company on the show period end of story and I cannot introduce you to chamath to spec your company enough of that. Love you Besties.
